Complex processes shape migration decisions at the individual level, many of which are influenced by the interactions of household-level processes with broader conditions of social-environmental systems (SESs). We examine these interactions in India, a country with large geographic variations in climatic exposure and socio-economic conditions. Our study integrates household and individual-level migration data from the National Sample Survey (NSS 64th Round) with the historical spatial data on flooding from the Global Flood Database based on the Dartmouth Flood Observatory. Adjusting for household-level economic conditions, this paper provides evidence on how individual-level migration decisions vary with environmental shocks and stresses at the SES level. We further document that these environmental conditions affect migration outcomes differently for individuals within households based on characteristics including birth order, sex, and stated reason for migration. Our analysis also points to variations in the time lag between migration as a response to varying environmental shocks and stresses, potentially presenting a window of opportunity to address climatic impacts on SESs. This study advances the research on climate change adaptation by highlighting the role of intersectional vulnerabilities and behaviours affecting the future population structures of climate-exposed SESs.

Garima Jain, Dylan Connor, Pratyush Tripathy
Arizona State University

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ID Abstract: 397