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1145 | 597 | Does cutting airport slots reduce climate impact? The Amsterdam Schiphol Airport case | Frédéric DOBRUSZKES, Pere SUAU-SANCHEZ, Giulio MATTIOLI

The aviation sector significantly contributes to climate change, despite only a minority of the global population participating in air travel and even fewer flying frequently. The industry has no short-to-medium-term scalable technological solutions to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions significantly. To date, gains in fuel efficiency have been more than offset by traffic growth. The only option to reduce GHG emissions would thus be to curb the number of flights and/or distances flown, since longer flights have higher emissions per flight and are responsible for a disproportionate share of total GHG._x000D_
In this context, the Dutch government announced in June 2022 a reduction in the number of available slots at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport from 500,000 to 440,000 from November 2023. The implementation of the government policy was later moved to 2024, but the airport manager decided to reduce the quota to 460,000 from the winter 2023-2024 season to provide more visibility to airlines. The reduction of slots mainly seeks noise reduction but also claims climate mitigation benefits. However, the volume of GHG emissions depends on the distances flown, not only on movement numbers. If that is not taken into consideration, emission reductions are not guaranteed. _x000D_
In this context, our study investigates the balance between the future number of flights and distances flown in various scenarios compared to the 2019 reference. We explore a range of assumptions, including: all markets are equally affected; only the shortest flights are cut; more short-haul flights are cut to allow for more longer flights; flights are saved based on KLM network/connectivity strategy in the context of its hubbing operations. Our results would show that only in some scenarios GHG emissions decrease, i.e., that in some scenarios, emissions can grow despite a slot reduction.

Frédéric DOBRUSZKES, Pere SUAU-SANCHEZ, Giulio MATTIOLI
Free Brussels of Brussels (ULB), Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, Cranfield University, TU Dortmund University

 
ID Abstract: 597

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1145 | 638 | geographic, financial and operational feasibility of zero-emission, long-haul commercial flights | Athina Sismanidou*, Kevin O’Connor**, Joan Tarradellas***, Pere Suau-Sanchez****


This study has two objectives: first, determining the short-term feasibility of some long-haul commercial air routes based on electric, zero-emission planes; second, mapping the expected evolution of such long-haul routes as electric-plane technology and capabilities evolve over the next years._x000D_
For the first objective, a concept electrical aircraft prototype, based on the current (as of 2023) available technologies, is used to build three major long-haul routes -London/New York, Sydney/Singapore, and Frankfurt/Dubai-, each one with different geographical constraints. These long-haul missions are to be achieved via stop-overs on currently existing airport facilities along the routes. For the second objective, mimicking the development of early commercial long-haul services, the study makes use of prior literature that has analyzed the changes in the shape of commercial flights and their intermediate nodes over time. Based on the findings of that previous research, this study outlines the potential outlook of evolving pure-electric long-haul flights and the likely emergence of new hubs as a result. The projections take into account the role of technology evolution, regulation, route physiography, and regional economic activity._x000D_
This study adds significant insight to the current discussion -currently constricted to short-haul segments- about commercial routes making use of pure electric aircraft, expanding the research to longer-haul services. The 2021 Glasgow Climate Change Conference (COP26) conclusions, signaling the urgency to address the world’s excessive green-house emissions without delay, make this paper particularly relevant for the future of the commercial airline industry in general, and the carbon footprint of long-haul commercial flights in particular

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Athina Sismanidou*, Kevin O’Connor**, Joan Tarradellas***, Pere Suau-Sanchez****
*Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, **University of Melbourne, ***EADA Business School, ****Cranfield University,

 
ID Abstract: 638

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1145 | | Transport, tourism and climate change: The tyranny of distance travelled | Dobruszkes Frédéric (1); Suau-Sanchez Pere (2,3); Wilson Julie (3)


IPCC (2022) estimates that the transport sector accounted for 15% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) direct emissions in 2019. The contribution of this sector to climate is progressively increasing in absolute terms due to growing traffic (more and longer trips), the predominance of the least-efficient transport modes (cars, vans, trucks and planes), as well as the slow pace of innovation.
Whilst the spotlight is generally on efficiency (e.g., emissions per passenger/kilometre), distance is a crucial geographical concept at the core of transport geography and by extension, it is a major factor influencing GHG emissions and climate footprint. All other things being equal, distance travelled directly affects energy consumption. However, during the last few years, transport environmental policy has been primarily centred on short-distance travel and urban/regional mobilities. This has significantly improved people’s lives and local air quality, but has not been enough to curb the growing GHG emissions.
Considering the context above, this special session explores the relationships among three aspects: transport, distance and climate change. All scales (from urban areas to the global), transport modes, passenger motivations (including tourism mobilities and goods may be considered for the session.
Potential topics include:

Is there a linear relationship between distance travelled and climate footprint?
Cycling and flying – personal responsibilities and contradictions inherent in balancing the climate consequences of transport mode choice for daily mobilities and leisure/tourism-based travel.
Tourism as a driver of long-haul flight emissions.
Replacement of short-haul flights with rail services as a possible means to reduce aviation’s contribution to climate change – can high-speed rail contribute to making aviation ‘greener’?
Current and future feasible alternatives to long-haul travel.
Likelihood of behavioural change in relation to long-haul travel – is price the only filter?
The environmental (in)efficiency of airport charges and specific aviation taxes against distance flown

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Esta completa guía pretende ilustrar a los lectores sobre las ventajas de Aldactone para combatir la disfunción eréctil y cómo puede allanar el camino hacia una vida plena y satisfactoria. aldactone 25 Además, Aldactone demuestra su valía en el campo de la cardiología al ayudar en el tratamiento de la insuficiencia cardiaca congestiva..

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The relationship between social class, distance travelled and GHG emissions.
Buying local or buying global? The climate impact of global e-commerce platforms. Under the auspices of the IGU Commission on Geography of Tourism, Leisure, and Global Change and the IGU Commission on Transport & Geography.

Dobruszkes Frédéric (1); Suau-Sanchez Pere (2,3); Wilson Julie (3)
(1) Brussels Free University (ULB), (2) Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, (3) Cranfield University

 
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1145 | 240 | Hypermobility and environmental issues | Veronique Mondou, Isabelle Frochot, Philippe Violier

At a time when, in the light of the health crisis, a radical change in tourism practices is being prophesied towards proximity tourism, we wanted to measure the extent to which the French individuals who travel the most (described here as hypermobiles), intend to modify – or not – their practices._x000D_
The analysis was conducted in two stages. A first quantitative analysis based on multivariate statistical treatments allowed us to determine the profile of hypermobile travellers. This allowed us to select a panel of people with whom we conducted semi-structured interviews that allowed us to analyse household practices before and during the pandemic, and planned trips._x000D_
The use of interviews helped us to understand the meaning given to tourists’ practices and the value placed on their mobilities. The modes of transport preferred by the people respond to a set of constraints (linked to the location of the households, their destination, the composition of the households, etc.). Specific questions in the interviews dealt with the environmental dimension in order to measure interviewees’ awareness of sustainable development issues in their daily life and in their tourist travels._x000D_
Although almost all the people interviewed consider that they have pro-environmental principles in their daily lives, these considerations take a set back when it comes to tourists’ trips where other motivations dominate. Similarly, the obligation to limit travel during the health crisis does not call into question long-distance travel, which has simply been postponed._x000D_
Our analysis therefore reveals that external events and societal pressures have little impact on the tourist mobility of these hypermobiles. The sense of tourism, the release of constraints and, more particularly, the practice of discovery, take precedence on constraints, particularly economic ones, when they are weak or non-existent._x000D_

Veronique Mondou, Isabelle Frochot, Philippe Violier
Université d’Angers, Université de Bourgogne, Université d’Angers

 
ID Abstract: 240

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1145 | 557 | Carbon emissions from air transport: countries’ trajectories during the last decade, geographical patterns and underlying determinants | Mihail Eva, Alexandra Cehan

This paper analyzes country level data on air transport activity (gathered and made available by World Bank), CO2 emissions from air transport activity and industry (estimated and published by OECD.Stat) for around 150 countries, and links them to demographic and economic data for the same group of countries. The research firstly employs cluster analysis with the purpose of defining a typology of countries according to trajectories of CO2 emission from air transportation activity and industry, air transport carbon footprint and air transport carbon intensity, while also highlighting significant geographical patterns across the globe. Secondly, the research employs regression analysis to explore the relationship between national economic development levels (and some other factors) and CO2 emissions from air transport (carbon footprint and carbon intensity), while also testing the hypothesis of an inverted-U relationship between GDP per capita and carbon footprint and intensity._x000D_

Mihail Eva, Alexandra Cehan
Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iași

 
ID Abstract: 557

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1139 | 837 | The potential implications of the urban environment on human sentiment | Iuria Betco

Mental health problems have been on the rise worldwide, possibly associated with urban population growth and lifestyles. The recognition that the various aspects of the urban environment can affect the mental health of individuals has been increasing since they are responsible for facilitating or inhibiting behaviors and lifestyles that impact the feeling._x000D_
In this context, it is essential to understand the potential impact that the urban environment of the city of Lisbon may have on the feelings of those who «live the space». To do so, we resorted to sentiment analysis based on data from the social network Twitter, using a lexicon from the NRC Sentiment and Emotion, enabling the identification of places where both positive and negative sentiment prevail; this is an easily replicable process with a more direct association to sentiment and emotions (e.g., Plutchik’s wheel of emotions). _x000D_
Next, a Machine Learning (ML) model associated with an agnostic model was used to increase understanding of the factors in the urban environment that can explain sentiment (hedonic well-being). Four ML models were tested, Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Neural Network (NN), and K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN), which is one of the simplest algorithms used, and a linear model for comparison (Generalized Linear Model – GLM). Using positive/negative sentiment as dependent variable and 30 explanatory variables related to the urban environment, it was found that RF is the model with the highest predictive ability._x000D_
The agnostic models applied, the Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), and the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP), which is based on game theory, played a crucial role in this study. Thus, answering the starting question, the explanatory variables that are most related to sentiment are distance to fitness equipment, distance to green spaces, the popularity of locations, and distance to the cycling network._x000D_

Iuria Betco
Centro de Estudos Geográficos, Instituto de Geografia e Ordenamento do Território, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal

 
ID Abstract: 837

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1139 | 971 | Spot images remote sensing study of the Middle Atlas aquifer (Morocco) and scaling properties of fracture networks. | Mohamed Rouai 1* and Khaoula Qarqori 2

In fractured aquifers such as the tabular Liasic reservoir of Middle Atlas (northern Morocco), geological fracturing plays significant role in feeding patterns and governing water flows. The knowledge of the geometry of fractures and their connectivity is essential for a better characterization of the discontinuous reservoir and the assessment of water resources. The use of remote sensing techniques helped us to have the latest information, to easily cover a large surface and to quantify fracture networks and choosing targets for water wells. _x000D_
We used VHR, VIRHR multispectral and GHR panchromatic Spot images. Several techniques like enhancement and sharpness optimization and different filtering have been applied in order to extract a new fracturing map, which was validated by a cross-analysis with various cartographic inventories of the study area and with a field survey. The statistical and 2D spatial analysis of the resulting data, based on the fractures azimuth and length, showed heterogeneous and high clustering fracturing which is predominated by NE-SW and NW-SE directions._x000D_
The application of the fractal geometry and power-law statistics has led to describe and to quantify the spatial distribution of fracture networks related to the scale and to determine the characteristic fracture lengths specific for the studied reservoir. The obtained results from the surface using imagery could be extrapolated, under some precautions, to the whole reservoir and to the deep aquifer beneath the Sais basin._x000D_
The used remote sensing techniques under a GIS environment have been very useful for this case study in order to characterize and modeling this important aquifer and to contribute to protect water resources in the region in the context of global change._x000D_

Mohamed Rouai 1* and Khaoula Qarqori 2
1. Earth Sciences Department, Moulay Ismail University of Meknes, Morocco. 2. Earth Sciences Department, FST Errachidia, Moulay Ismail University, Morocco.

 
ID Abstract: 971

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1139 | 79 | Análisis y distribución espacial de quejas de usuarios en el Metro de Madrid mediante Regresión Geográficamente Ponderada | Joaquín Osorio Arjona

Esta ponencia busca evaluar el uso de las redes sociales como fuentes de datos con gran potencial para localizar problemas en servicios de transporte público a partir de la geolocalización de los sentimientos de los ciudadanos. Para ello se ha usado datos de Twitter descargados en un periodo de dos meses. Estos tweets corresponden con respuestas de usuarios a la cuenta oficial del Metro de Madrid. Se han identificado cuatro temas principales (puntualidad, comodidad, averías, y sobresaturación) a partir del procesado del texto de los tweets mediante las librerías Pandas y ArcPy de Python. Para el análisis espacial, temporal y semántico de los datos se han usado las distintas herramientas de resumen y agregación de datos con las que cuenta el SIG de escritorio ArcGIS Pro sobre las distintas líneas y paradas del Metro de Madrid. Por último, la herramienta de estadística espacial de Regresión Geográficamente Ponderada se ha utilizado para explorar la causalidad de la distribución espacial en el Área Metropolitana de Madrid de los usuarios que escriben quejas mediante el uso de cuatro parámetros: densidad de población, nivel de renta, densidad de puntos de interés, e intermodalidad de las estaciones de metro. Los principales resultados muestran la proximidad de los usuarios de metro a los puntos de interés de los destinos de viaje como un factor importante. Además, se establece un perfil de trabajadores de nivel de renta medio que residen en áreas periféricas y que principalmente publican mensajes de Twitter cuando se desplazan al lugar de trabajo.

Joaquín Osorio Arjona
Universidad de Sevilla

 
ID Abstract: 79

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1139 | 119 | Flood-prone urban area mapping using machine learning, a case sudy of M’sila city (Algeria) | Dr MEDJADJ Tarek

This study aims to develop a flood sensitivity assessment tool using machine learning (ML) techniques and geographic information system (GIS). The importance of this study is integrating the geographic information systems (GIS) and machine learning (ML) techniques for mapping flood risks, which help decision-makers to identify the most vulnerable areas and take the necessary precautions to face this type of natural disaster. To reach this goal, we will study the case of the city of M’sila, which is among the areas most vulnerable to floods._x000D_
This study drew a map of flood-prone areas based on the methodology where we have done a comparison between 3 machine learning algorithms: the xGboost model, the Random Forest algorithm and the K Nearest Neighbor algorithm. Each of them gave an accuracy respectively of 97.92 – 95 – 93.75. In the process of mapping flood-prone areas, the first model was relied upon, which gave the greatest accuracy (xGboost)._x000D_

Dr MEDJADJ Tarek
University of M’sila

 
ID Abstract: 119

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1139 | 751 | A spatio-temporal analysis of the global maritime network since 1880 | César Ducruet; Barbara Polo Martin; Bruno Marnot; Hidekazu Itoh; Dimitrios Tsiotas; Marc-Antoine Faure

The Lloyd’s List database on daily, worldwide ship movements is a rich and unique material to study the evolution of global maritime networks since the late 19th century. This research first provides a new visualization of the changing distribution of maritime flows on the globe between 1880 and 2008, thanks to a dedicated GIS. Second, we study the network (graph) dimension of these flows by means of graph-theoretical and complex network methods, at different levels of node aggregation, from ports to port cities and city-regions. This is followed by an analysis of the relationships between maritime flows and urban development, notably through the use of a gravity model considering urban population, maritime distances, and land distances between ports and nearby cities. Main results confirm existing knowledge about the growth or decline of certain regions or nodes over time, while it brings new light on the existence of structural change from a meshed to an optimal, albeit more vulnerable, network. We also identify a shift of traffic generation power from port cities to city-regions, as a consequence of the rationalisation of logistics systems after WWII.

César Ducruet; Barbara Polo Martin; Bruno Marnot; Hidekazu Itoh; Dimitrios Tsiotas; Marc-Antoine Faure
French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) & UMR 7235 EconomiX; University of La Rochelle & UMR 7266 LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés (LIENSs); Kwansei Gakuin University; Agricultural University of Athens; University of Paris-Nanterre & University of Genoa

 
ID Abstract: 751

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