Rising concerns about pre-existing threats to food security and livelihoods have influenced the political and scientific debate regarding the vulnerability of rural landscapes as a social-ecological system. We identified spatially and statistically the main typologies of rural vulnerability to climate change, depopulation and globalization of agricultural markets in rural Spain. We acquired the data from different sources that measure three stressors (climate change, depopulation and globalization) and components (sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity) at the municipal level. We performed principal components analysis followed by hierarchical cluster analysis. Cluster 1 grouped the most vulnerable municipalities to depopulation, as it presented the highest decrease in population growth, the highest number of aged and young people, the lowest connectivity to rural areas, the highest proportion of small centers and low adaptive capacity in terms of percentage of social infrastructures. Further, cluster 1 has the highest average in economic loss, associated with a high dependence on agricultural activities that are vulnerable to competition from imported food products. Cluster 2 is characterized by the highest decrease in rainfall rates and the highest dependence on agricultural activities that are very sensitive to rainfall. Municipalities in this cluster were sensible and exposed to depopulation as well. Municipalities grouped into cluster 3 are distinctively exposed to temperature increases and sensitive to wildfire increases and soil erosion, which makes them highly vulnerable to climate change. Cluster 4 grouped municipalities that presented a high dependence on agricultural export activities. The mapped typologies of vulnerabilities can support the implementation of rural development policies as they provide the multidimensional characterization of the interaction of several threats and strengths in rural landscapes as a social-ecological system. _x000D_

Beatriz Pierri-Daunt, Sergio Villamayor-Tomas, Daniel Gaitan, Esteve Corbera
Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB). Edifici ICTA-ICP, Carrer de les Columnes s/n, 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain

 
ID Abstract: 307