Land use has been continually changing to meet human needs, and is influenced by inter-related physical, social, economic, political and technological factors. This paper presents the future land use simulation for protecting soil erosion and enhancing food crop areas using CLUMondo dynamic spatial model. Land degradation related to land use change was studied in North Khong basin of Thailand using satellite images and GIS applied for soil erosion analysis using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) soil erosion model. Future land uses until 2031 were projected for three policy scenarios, namely business-as-usual, market-based, and soil and water conservation with different levels of emphasis on ecosystem services. In business-as-usual scenario, it was observed that by 2031 the area under forest cover will decline due to demand for agriculture conversion or lack of policy enforcement. Built up area and the encroachment for rubber plantation will substantially expand. In market-based scenario, it aimed to achieve a maximum productivity of agriculture crop. Miscellaneous area would be used for cultivating agricultural crops, perennial, and fruit tree. In addition, this scenario anticipates effective protection of remaining forest in all existing and proposed protected areas. The soil and water conservation scenario is targeted to increase forest area. Upland rice will be replaced by forest plantation as upland areas have high erosion rate and these need to be conserved. Such results can serve as useful information in policy formulation in developing land use options, which help enhance ecosystem services in future.

Sunsanee Arunyawat1, Totsanat Rattanakaew1 , and Karika Kunta2
1 Land development department, Ministry of agriculture and cooperatives 2 Environment school, National Institute of Development Administration

 
ID Abstract: 692